Thus, the so called Virtual Impactors (VIs) have been searched. Scientists have estimated and monitored the potential impacts for this asteroid through 2200 by means of two mathematical models (Monte Carlo Method and line of variations sampling). The research also involved scientists from the University of Pisa (Italy), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (USA) and INAF-IASF-Rome (Italy).
" The total impact probability of asteroid '(101955) 1999 RQ 36' can be estimated in 0.00092 -approximately one-in-a-thousand chance-, but what is most surprising is that over half of this chance (0.00054) corresponds to 2182," explains to SINC María Eugenia Sansaturio, co-author of the study and researcher of Universidad de Valladolid (UVA). Knowing this fact may help design in advance mechanisms aimed at deviating the asteroid's path. The potentially hazardous asteroid, (101955) 1999 RQ 36, has a one-in-a-thousand chance of impacting the Earth, and more than half of this probability indicates that this could happen in the year 2182, based on a global study in which Spanish researchers have been involved. PhysOrg | Space Exploration | 27 July 2010 Potentially hazardous asteroid might collide with the Earth in 2182 Scientists have tracked asteroid 1999 RQ 36's orbit through 290 optical observations and 13 radar surveys, but there is still some uncertainty because of the gentle push it receives from the so-called Yarkovsky effect, researchers said. A space rock this size could cause widespread devastation at an impact site in the remote chance that it hit Earth, according to a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences. The asteroid was discovered in 1999 and is about 1,837 feet (560 meters) across.
The research is detailed in the science journal Icarus. They found two potential opportunities for the asteroid to hit Earth in 2182. Sansaturio and her colleagues used mathematical models to determine the risk of asteroid 1999 RQ 36 impacting the Earth through the year 2200.
The asteroid, called 1999 RQ 36, has about a 1-in-1,000 chance of actually hitting the Earth, but half of that risk corresponds to potential impacts in the year 2182, said study co-author María Eugenia Sansaturio of the Universidad de Valladolid in Spain. A large asteroid in space that has a remote chance of slamming into the Earth would be most likely hit in 2182, if it crashed into our planet at all, a new study suggests.
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